Publications
Macroeconomic Effects of Political Risk Shocks
Economics Letters, 2024
Systemic Financial Stress and Macroeconomic Amplifications in the United Kingdom
with Somnath Chatterjee, Jeremy (Ching-Wai) Chiu (Bank of England) and Thibaut Duprey (Bank of Canada),
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2021
[Working paper]
Previously circulated as A financial stress index for the United Kingdom, Bank of England Staff Working Paper Series No. 697
[UKFSI series for 1971-2020]
Coverage: Central Banking
The Distributional Impact of the Pandemic
with Diego Kaenzig and Paolo Surico (London Business School)
European Economic Review, 2021
[CEPR Discussion Paper]
Earlier version: Consumption in the Time of Covid-19: Evidence from UK Transaction-level Data – CEPR Discussion Paper 14733
Coverage: Financial Times, Financial Times, The Times, Economics Observatory, Andy Haldane’s Speech, Wheeler Institute, Bank Underground
Common Correlated Effect Cross-sectional Dependence Corrections for Non-linear Conditional Mean Panel Models
with George Kapetanios (King’s College London)
Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2021
[Working Paper] [Online Appendix] [Matlab code]
Solvency and Wholesale Funding Cost Interactions at UK Banks
with Kieran Dent and Apostolos Panagiotopoulos (Bank of England)
Journal of Financial Stability, 2021
[Working Paper] [Bank Underground]
Predictive Regressions Under Asymmetric Loss: Factor Augmentation and Model Selection
with Matei Demetrescu (University of Kiel),
International Journal of Forecasting, 2019
[Working Paper]
Working papers
Topography of the FX Derivatives Market: A View from London
with Daniel Ostry, Helene Rey, Adrien Rousset Planat, Vania Stavrakeva, Jenny Tang
When Creativity Strikes: News Shocks and Business Cycle Fluctuations
with Silvia Miranda-Agrippino and Kristina Bluwstein (Bank of England)
Revise and resubmit at the Review of Economic Studies
CEPR DP 15062 & Bank of England Staff Working Paper 788
Coverage: Bank Underground
Work in progress
How were extra benefits spent?
draft coming soon
Earlier Working Papers and Projects
Credit, Capital and Crises: a GDP-at-Risk Approach
with David Aikman, Jonathan Bridges, Cian O’Neill and Akash Raja (Bank of England), Bank of England Staff Working Paper Series No. 824
CEPR Discussion Paper 15864
Bayesian Estimation of Structural FAVAR Model with Latent Threshold
with Kerem Tuzcuoglu (Bank of Canada)
Bank of England Staff Working Paper Series No. 622
[Bank Underground]
Non-linear Macro-Financial Dynamics: Evidence from the United Kingdom
with Jeremy (Ching-Wai) Chiu (Bank of England)
Previously circulated as Macroeconomic tail events with non-linear Bayesian VARs, Bank of England Staff Working Paper Series No. 611
[Bank Underground]